Optimal transportation under controlled stochastic dynamics

We consider an extension of the Monge-Kantorovitch optimal transportation problem. The mass is transported along a continuous semimartingale, and the cost of transportation depends on the drift and the diffusion coefficients of the continuous semimartingale. The optimal transportation problem minimizes the cost among all continuous semimartingales with given initial and terminal distributions. Our first main result is an extension of the Kantorovitch duality to this context. We also suggest a finite-difference scheme combined with the gradient projection algorithm to approximate the dual value. We prove the convergence of the scheme, and we derive a rate of convergence. We finally provide an application in the context of financial mathematics, which originally motivated our extension of the Monge-Kantorovitch problem. Namely, we implement our scheme to approximate no-arbitrage bounds on the prices of exotic options given the implied volatility curve of some maturity.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOP797 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Irreducible convex paving for decomposition of multi-dimensional martingale transport plans

Martingale transport plans on the line are known from Beiglbock & Juillet to have an irreducible decomposition on a (at most) countable union of intervals. We provide an extension of this decomposition for martingale transport plans in R^d, d larger than one. Our decomposition is a partition of R^d consisting of a possibly uncountable family of relatively open convex components, with the required measurability so that the disintegration is well-defined. We justify the relevance of our decomposition by proving the existence of a martingale transport plan filling these components. We also deduce from this decomposition a characterization of the structure of polar sets with respect to all martingale transport plans.Comment: 52 pages, 2 figure

Moral Hazard in Dynamic Risk Management

We consider a contracting problem in which a principal hires an agent to manage a risky project. When the agent chooses volatility components of the output process and the principal observes the output continuously, the principal can compute the quadratic variation of the output, but not the individual components. This leads to moral hazard with respect to the risk choices of the agent. We identify a family of admissible contracts for which the optimal agent's action is explicitly characterized, and, using the recent theory of singular changes of measures for It\^o processes, we study how restrictive this family is. In particular, in the special case of the standard Homlstr\"om-Milgrom model with fixed volatility, the family includes all possible contracts. We solve the principal-agent problem in the case of CARA preferences, and show that the optimal contract is linear in these factors: the contractible sources of risk, including the output, the quadratic variation of the output and the cross-variations between the output and the contractible risk sources. Thus, like sample Sharpe ratios used in practice, path-dependent contracts naturally arise when there is moral hazard with respect to risk management. In a numerical example, we show that the loss of efficiency can be significant if the principal does not use the quadratic variation component of the optimal contract.Comment: 36 pages, 3 figure

Optimal Stopping under Nonlinear Expectation

Let $X$ be a bounded c\`adl\`ag process with positive jumps defined on the canonical space of continuous paths. We consider the problem of optimal stopping the process $X$ under a nonlinear expectation operator \cE defined as the supremum of expectations over a weakly compact family of nondominated measures. We introduce the corresponding nonlinear Snell envelope. Our main objective is to extend the Snell envelope characterization to the present context. Namely, we prove that the nonlinear Snell envelope is an \cE-supermartingale, and an \cE-martingale up to its first hitting time of the obstacle $X$. This result is obtained under an additional uniform continuity property of $X$. We also extend the result in the context of a random horizon optimal stopping problem. This result is crucial for the newly developed theory of viscosity solutions of path-dependent PDEs as introduced in Ekren et al., in the semilinear case, and extended to the fully nonlinear case in the accompanying papers (Ekren, Touzi, and Zhang, parts I and II).Comment: 36 page

Tightness and duality of martingale transport on the Skorokhod space

The martingale optimal transport aims to optimally transfer a probability measure to another along the class of martingales. This problem is mainly motivated by the robust superhedging of exotic derivatives in financial mathematics, which turns out to be the corresponding Kantorovich dual. In this paper we consider the continuous-time martingale transport on the Skorokhod space of cadlag paths. Similar to the classical setting of optimal transport, we introduce different dual problems and establish the corresponding dualities by a crucial use of the S-topology and the dynamic programming principle